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summary of "Making Up Opinions" by Robin Hanson
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Simply because the surveyor is asking the question, respondents believe that they should have an opinion about it. For example, researchers have shown that large minorities would provide opinions on countries that don’t exist.

This applies to you too: you have fewer opinions than you express.

(source: <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/07/making-up-opinions.html">http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/07/making-up-opinions.html</a>)
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(SSC) Beware the man of one study: summary of the 'minimum wage effects on employment' case study
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There's overwhelming evidence on both sides even with meta-analyses, open letters by economists and economists surveys.
The funnel plot is assymetrical, so probably publication bias on the conservative (opposing minimum wage raise) side.
Anyway the effects probably depend a lot on the context.

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(LW) Summary of 'Fallacies of Compression' by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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Our vision of the world compresses the reality into concepts.
It takes genius to realize that a concept should be split into several others
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Summary of "Is Science Stagnant?" (2018, Patrick Collison and Michael Nielsen)
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The speed of scientific progress is stagnant at best. In physics, the golden age is over.
Since investment is ever increasing, it means science is getting less bang for its buck.


https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/
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Summary of Gwern's summary of "The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at MIT"
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Many people were remarkably accurate in their technological predictions, but just didn't get the timing right. They wasted their money on technologies that needed more time (usually Moore's law) to happen
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Summary of Bostrom's "Vulnerable World Hypothesis"
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We might live in a vulnerable world: in the future we 
might find out a way to make nukes in a garage (for instance)

https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf
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Summary of OvercomingBias "Against Voter Foresight"
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When a future tech is foreseen too long before it happens, it becomes a subject of heated public debate, which hinders its potential positive aspects.
Ex: the pill wasn't foreseen, and it's better this way
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Summary of "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox" (Bostrom, Sandberg, Drexler, 2018)
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Although the expected number of intelligent civilizations is high with our current estimates of the Drake equation's parameters, taking our uncertainties into account results in a substantial probability of us being alone in the observable universe.
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(SSC) Summary of "Rule thinkers in, not out"
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We should accept individuals who can come up with at least some brilliant ideas, not reject individuals who are wrong somewhere.

Because coming up with new ideas is much harder than evaluating ideas
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Summary of Matt Might: HOWTO: Get into grad school for science, engineering, math and computer science
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publish
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(SSC) summary of Creationism, Unchallenged
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the 2000's were the decade of fierce media opposition to Creationism. Now it's ignored. And it performs just as well, so maybe leaving things like this unchallenged is okay.
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Summary of Paul Graham, Do Things that don't scale (paulgraham.com/ds.html)
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initially, recruiting users manually, and making them extremely pleased, is not scalable but essential (like some other non-scalable things)
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Summary of "The World Forager Elite", Robin Hanson
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Why is there so little deviation between nations on regulation?

Because there is a global elite which talks, forms consensus and then forces regulation to be as it wants
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summary of Nintil's "Slaying Alexander's Moloch"
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when people have just a bit of altruism, Moloch phenomena don't play out the same way, and empirically it's not as bad as what the game theory says
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Cost Matters: Why Lambda School should have a lower success rate than college (Chris Stucchio): summary
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It's completely normal for Lambda School to have a lower success rate than e.g. college, because the gamble is more favorable from the student's perspective: there is less downside in case of failure, so some less-talented students who shouldn't attend college should attend Lambda School
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(LW) summary of "Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism" by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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censorship or at least a karma system where people do downvote are necessary for online gardens to remain high-quality.
Showing cards 1-16 of 16