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(LW) Conservation of expected evidence= (with sentence and proof)
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Whatever the experiment, you can't expect the results to shift your beliefs (on average!) in a particular direction.

P(H) = P(H|E)*P(E) + P(H|~E)*P(~E)
prior probability = expected posterior probability

(<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/conservation-of-expected-evidence">https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/conservation-of-expected-evidence</a>)