AnkiLab
Sign in

Filter by tags:

filter by tags...

1091 cards in collection

Showing cards 1-20 of 1091
Front
summary of "Making Up Opinions" by Robin Hanson
lang
Back
Simply because the surveyor is asking the question, respondents believe that they should have an opinion about it. For example, researchers have shown that large minorities would provide opinions on countries that don’t exist.

This applies to you too: you have fewer opinions than you express.

(source: <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/07/making-up-opinions.html">http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/07/making-up-opinions.html</a>)
Front
4 arguments against the free market argument (how can companies do harm?)
lang
Back
1) Imperfect information: e.g. supplements that perhaps have no effect but there's no evidence, or product that does harm but does not need to repeat business with the same consumers
2) Companies that exploit irrationality: e.g. lottery
3) products may advantage the consumer over other people in zero-sum or negative-sum games: e.g. a company that sells software that helps you spam people
4) negative externality: e.g. pollution

(source: <a href="https://80000hours.org/2017/10/spencer-greenberg-social-science/">https://80000hours.org/2017/10/spencer-greenberg-social-science/</a> (2018-02-11))
Front
Argument that new technologies first benefit the rich then the poor, eventually contributing to reducing inequalities (vaccines and antibiotics in the 20th century): why could it stop working in the 21st century according to Yuval Noah Harari (2 reasons)?
lang
Back
1) Curing the sick is an egalitarian goal, improving the healthy is not
2) States don't need the masses as much as they did in the 20th century
Front
(SSC) Beware the man of one study: summary of the 'minimum wage effects on employment' case study
lang
Back
There's overwhelming evidence on both sides even with meta-analyses, open letters by economists and economists surveys.
The funnel plot is assymetrical, so probably publication bias on the conservative (opposing minimum wage raise) side.
Anyway the effects probably depend a lot on the context.

Front
(LW) 2 kinds of rationality, define them
lang
Back
1) Epistemic rationality: improving the correspondence between your map and the territory
2) Instrumental rationality: achieving your values.
Front
(LW) def floating belief
lang
Back
A belief that isn't connected to experience, that lets anything happen (e.g. phlogiston is the source of fire)
Front
(LW) What is evidence?
lang
Back
An event happening differently for different possible states of whatever you want to know about

("What is evidence?", Eliezer Yudkowsky, <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6s3xABaXKPdFwA3FS/what-is-evidence">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6s3xABaXKPdFwA3FS/what-is-evidence</a>)
Front
(LW) Conservation of expected evidence= (with sentence and proof)
lang
Back
Whatever the experiment, you can't expect the results to shift your beliefs (on average!) in a particular direction.

P(H) = P(H|E)*P(E) + P(H|~E)*P(~E)
prior probability = expected posterior probability

(<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/conservation-of-expected-evidence">https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/conservation-of-expected-evidence</a>)
Front
(LW) Words do not only convey meaning. They convey...
lang
Back
experience − the experience of reading
Front
(LW) Why do cults come back stronger than before, when they experience a major shock (like a prophecy failing to come true)?
lang
Back
Evaporative Cooling. The more moderate ("highest kinetic energy") members go out, leaving only the extremists together.
Front
(LW) What is evaporative cooling in social psychology?
lang
Back
When a group shifts toward more extremism because the more moderate members ("highest kinetic energy") have left.
Front
(LW) An academic field that stops making active progress tends to become mean. Why?
lang
Back
Because their role, which was seeking the truth, becomes by substitution guarding the truth.
Front
(LW) Summary of 'Fallacies of Compression' by Eliezer Yudkowsky
lang
Back
Our vision of the world compresses the reality into concepts.
It takes genius to realize that a concept should be split into several others
Front
(LW) What is a real definition?
lang
Back
A simple boundary in thingspace around regions of unusually high probability density

(<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLcuygFfMfrfK8KjF/mutual-information-and-density-in-thingspace">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLcuygFfMfrfK8KjF/mutual-information-and-density-in-thingspace</a>)
Front
def theory of action and theory of change with example of decreasing defense budget (Aaron Schwartz)
lang
Back
Theory of action: what can you do? If you're a blogger, write a blog post

Theory of change: what makes it happen? It is voted. Why? Because politicians vote for it. Why? Because they think it's going to make them reelected, and because they believe in it. How to make them believe in it? First convince the influential people the politicians trust, etc.
Front
Summary of "Is Science Stagnant?" (2018, Patrick Collison and Michael Nielsen)
lang
Back
The speed of scientific progress is stagnant at best. In physics, the golden age is over.
Since investment is ever increasing, it means science is getting less bang for its buck.


https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/
Front
Summary of Gwern's summary of "The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at MIT"
lang
Back
Many people were remarkably accurate in their technological predictions, but just didn't get the timing right. They wasted their money on technologies that needed more time (usually Moore's law) to happen
Front
Gwern's summary of "The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at MIT": why did Microsoft, Google, Facebook etc succeed when the ideas (OS, search engine, social network) had already a lot of implementations?
lang
Back
Because of the perfect timing
Front
obliteration by incorporation =
lang
Back
at some stage in the development of a science, certain ideas become so universally accepted and commonly used that their contributors are no longer cited =
Front
Example of obliteration by incorporation
lang
Back
The double helix structure of DNA: we're not citing Watson & Crick anymore
Showing cards 1-20 of 1091